Spatio-temporal epidemiologic mapping, modeling and prediction of tuberculosis incidence rate in northeast of Iran

Introduction: Tuberculosis is a major public health problem in the world. The aim of the present study was to determine the incidence rate of tuberculosis through modeling and predict the disease incidence rate using spatio-temporal Kriging method in three endemic regions (Kashmar, Khalilabad and Bardeskan) in the northeast of Iran. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted during 2007-2012. The diagnosis of tuberculosis in patients who had signs and symptoms of infection was confirmed using sputum smear test. According to fitted variogram function and Kriging method, we predicted tuberculosis incidence for all spatial and temporal points of regions in the study area. Results: Between 2007 and 2012, 155 cases of tuberculosis were observed. Among all patients, 70 (45.0%) were men and 94.0% were rural residents. Mean age of patients with tuberculosis was 64 years and 151 (97.5%) of patients were 55 years old and above. Based on the geographical coordinates, we identified the place of residence for each patient. Conclusion: Our study showed that the downward trend of the incidence rate of tuberculosis indicates good but inadequate progress with tuberculosis control. The findings of this study can be used for planning and evaluating interventions by considering the risk factors of tuberculosis infection in the northeast of Iran.